African Swine Fever - Impact on Meat Supply

In Asia, a deadly pig virus has devastated East Asian farms with loses over a million hogs.    With a 30% reduction in pork in the largest pork producing country, China, there will be an increased demand to fill this gap pushing worldwide meat prices higher .

African Swine Virus does not affect humans, but can be very deadly for hogs.  There have not been any cases in the US and the USDA has been working to prevent introduction of the virus by the way of trade into the US. In March,  USDA-trained detector dogs played a major role in the seizure of smuggled pork from China.

The viruses are in the Asfarviridae family of viruses which are all enveloped and have double-stranded DNA genomes.  It was identified in the early 1900s.  The virus is found in warthogs and bushpigs with no ill effect, but causes a haemorrhagic fever with high mortality rates in domestic pigs.  The acute form of the virus can kill a pig within days.  Wild bores are thought to be an important vector for spreading the disease.

Bloomberg
Markets
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-11/meat-prices-seen-rising-as-deadly-virus-wipes-out-chinese-hogs
Meat Prices Seen Rising as Deadly Virus Wipes Out Chinese Hogs
By Irene Garcia Perez
April 11, 2019, 11:24 AM EDT

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-11/meat-prices-seen-rising-as-deadly-virus-wipes-out-chinese-hogs
Meat prices -- whether it’s chicken, beef, seafood or even fake meat -- are likely to rise because of a global shortages caused by a deadly hog virus that’s sweeping across China.

That’s according to a new report by Rabobank, which predicted widespread knock-on effects for the agriculture industry globally as African swine fever decimates Chinese hog farms. More than a million hogs have been culled in East Asia since the disease first appeared in August, and the consequences are already reshaping global trade.

Chinese pork production may decline about 30 percent in 2019 because of the virus, Rabobank predicted. To put that figure into context, a drop of that size would be roughly the same as Europe’s entire annual pork supply, the bank said.

China is the world’s biggest hog producer and pork is the principal source of dietary protein. The most virulent form of the disease can be 100 percent lethal for pigs and wild boars, and there’s no vaccine.

Chinese consumers will have to eat less pork and turn to other kinds of meat, like poultry, beef, fish and "alternative proteins," according to Rabobank, a Dutch lender that specializes in agriculture financing. Additionally, meat supplies around the world may be redirected to China to satisfy the country’s deficit in protein, the bank said.

"The price of all proteins is set to rise pretty substantially," said Christine McCracken, an analyst at the bank. “It would be our expectation that as China imports more pork, supplies in other countries will get tighter and prices will go up, not just for pork, but for other proteins as well."

“It will take at least three years to rebuild the industry without any risk of reinfecting the herd,” she said.

There are already signs that Chinese food preferences are changing in response to the crisis. Feed manufactured for poultry and fish farming rose last year, signaling increased production, almost certainly in response to higher demand. By contrast, feed made for hogs shrank 1 percent, according to industry association data.

Pork.org
https://www.pork.org/food-safety/african-swine-fever-need-know
African Swine Fever: What You Need to Know
HOME FOOD SAFETY AFRICAN SWINE FEVER: WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
PORK IS SAFE TO EAT. U.S. PIGS ARE NOT AFFECTED BY AFRICAN SWINE FEVER (ASF) OUTBREAKS IN OTHER COUNTRIES, TO DATE.

• ASF does not affect humans and therefore is not a public health threat according to USDA.
• ASF is a disease of pigs only and therefore is not a threat to non-swine pets or other livestock.
• As usual, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has measures in place to prevent sick animals from entering the food supply, including if ASF is detected in the U.S.
• As with any food product, you should always follow safe handling and cooking instructions to protect your family’s health.

AFRICAN SWINE FEVER IS A  VIRAL DISEASE IMPACTING ONLY PIGS, NOT PEOPLE—SO IT IS NOT A PUBLIC HEALTH THREAT NOR FOOD-SAFETY CONCERN.

• ASF cannot be transmitted to humans through contact with pigs or pork.
• ASF only affects members of the pig family.
• ASF can be transmitted to pigs through feeding of food waste containing contaminated pork products. The Swine Health Protection Act regulates the feeding of food waste containing meat to pigs to ensure that it is safe.
• ASF is transmitted to pigs through direct contact with infected pigs, their waste, blood, contaminated clothing, feed, equipment and vehicles, and in some cases, some tick species.

THE USDA DOES NOT ALLOW IMPORTATION OF PIGS OR FRESH PORK PRODUCTS INTO THE U.S. FROM AREAS OR REGIONS OF THE WORLD THAT ARE REPORTED POSITIVE FOR THE ASF VIRUS.

• Restrictions are based on USDA’s recognition of the animal health status of the region and are enforced by the Animal Plant Health and Inspection Service.
• International travelers should be diligent in following all rules and regulations related to the U.S. Customs and Border Patrol reentry declarations.

WHY IS ASF NOT A HUMAN HEALTH CONCERN?

• According to Dan Rock, Professor of Pathobiology, University of Illinois, most viruses demonstrate some degree of host restriction; they replicate in one cell type or host and not in another. While there are exceptions, this is the general rule, not the exception. In the case of ASF virus, there is no evidence supporting either subclinical or clinical infection of humans.
• The host restriction in ASF virus is likely due to the absence of susceptible and permissive cells needed for viral replication. It could also be related to the inability of the virus to overcome intrinsic and innate host responses generated following ASF virus exposure.

African swine fever virus is a contagious viral disease impacting only pigs, not people, so it is not a public health threat or food safety concern. The World Organization for Animal Health, of which the U.S. is a member, considers African swine fever to be a trade limiting foreign animal disease of swine. Countries with confirmed cases are subject to international trade restrictions aimed at reducing the risk of introduction of the disease through trade. The United States has never had a case of African swine fever and there are strict animal health and import requirements enforced by USDA APHIS Veterinary Services, USDA APHIS Plant Protection and Quarantine and Customs and Border Protection to prevent entry into the United States. There is a national response plan for African swine fever that has been developed by USDA Veterinary Services.

In response to the current situation in China and other countries, the National Pork Board has been working closely with the National Pork Producers Council, the American Association of Swine Veterinarians and the Swine Health Information Center to monitor the situation and collaborate with the USDA. The organizations are working collaboratively to gather intelligence, engage subject matter experts, assess risk and determine appropriate actions moving forward to address the issue. For more detailed information on African swine fever, visit Iowa State University’s Center for Food Safety and Public Health.