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Friday, February 14, 2020

Coronavirus Update - February 14, 2020

In the Coronavirus outbreak, strain designated COVID-19, the case numbers continue to grow, but a testing change by officials in China has had a impact on those numbers, causing the total number to surge higher.  CNBC reports that there are now some 64,000 reported cases wit 1,380 deaths.  There have been 15 cases confirmed in the US, but patients are under quarantine.  The risk in the US is still considered low.

From a Market Watch article - "Health authorities in Hubei Province are now counting cases that have been diagnosed solely by a computed tomography (CT) scan, not a combination of a CT scan and an RNA test. The most recent update from China’s National Health Commission states there were 15,152 new cases, a sevenfold increase over the 2,015 new cases that had been reported the day before. "

The CT method is a quicker analysis compared to the RNA tests that takes days.  The CT scans reveal lung infection, so it is not as specific.  And with a shortage of RNA test kits, many cases were being missed.

From a business perspective, one of the big casualties is the cruise ship operations.  With passenger ships having to quarantine passengers when there is a suspect case, it is easy to see why many may not want to get aboard.

WHO RISK ASSESSMENT
China Very High Regional Level High Global Level High
Market Watch

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coronavirus-update-1369-deaths-more-than-60000-cases-analysts-say-new-diagnosis-method-expanding-case-counts-hurts-confidence-in-china-2020-02-13
Coronavirus update: 1,369 deaths, 46,997 lab-confirmed cases, analysts say new diagnosis method ‘hurts confidence’ in China

Published: Feb 13, 2020 10:56 a.m. ET

A change in how China’s Hubei Province, which is home to Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak, is diagnosing the virus has led to a sharp upswing in the number of cases.

A midweek respite that seemed to indicate a slowdown in cases of COVID-19, the coronavirus that originated late last year in Wuhan, China, came to a halt on Thursday.

A change in how China’s Hubei Province, which is home to Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak, is diagnosing the virus led to a sharp upswing in the number of cases ⁠— and a series of revised figures from the World Health Organization (WHO) on Thursday.

Health authorities in Hubei Province are now counting cases that have been diagnosed solely by a computed tomography (CT) scan, not a combination of a CT scan and an RNA test. The most recent update from China’s National Health Commission states there were 15,152 new cases, a sevenfold increase over the 2,015 new cases that had been reported the day before.

Dr. Michael Ryan, executive director of the WHO Health Emergencies Program, told reporters that he understands that the latest case numbers from China are retrospective. “We’re not dealing with a spike in cases in one day,” he said, later calling the numbers “after-the-fact reporting.”

There are a total of 1,369 deaths and 46,997 cases, as confirmed by laboratory tests, according to a revised update from the WHO. Ryan confirmed that the second ex-China death has been reported, in Japan. Earlier on Thursday, WHO had said there are 60,329 cases worldwide, which would take into account the data released by China that accounts for CT-based diagnoses.

“Hubei Province has added a ‘clinical diagnosis case’ classification to identify suspected cases with pneumonia imaging features as clinical diagnosis cases,” China’s National Health Commission said in a translated statement on its website.

Cowen analysts said that “CT scans have been in use in Hubei for at least the last week as a faster, more readily available, and possibly more accurate method of testing.” They also cautioned that the change in case reporting metrics “significantly hurts confidence in the official China disclosures.”

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) confirmed that a quarantined individual in Texas is the fifteenth confirmed case of COVID-19 in the U.S. The individual had returned from China on a U.S. State Department flight on Feb. 7. On Wednesday, the CDC had confirmed the fourteenth case, of a quarantined individual in San Diego who had also returned to the U.S. on a Feb. 7 flight. That makes two quarantined individuals at Marine Corps Air Station Miramar in San Diego and one at Joint Base San Antonio in Lackland, Texas.

“The first and second patients arrived on different planes and were housed in separate facilities; there are no epidemiologic links between them,” the CDC said in a statement.

About 600 U.S. nationals are currently quarantined after returning from Wuhan on state flights.

Here’s how companies have been impacted by COVID-19:
see link - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coronavirus-update-1369-deaths-more-than-60000-cases-analysts-say-new-diagnosis-method-expanding-case-counts-hurts-confidence-in-china-2020-02-13

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